Parking Saturation Module

How overnight dwell detection reveals immediate co-location opportunities

Why Parking Saturation Matters to Getty

Parking capacity is the leading indicator of unmet demand in the truck-stop industry. When lots fill to 90%+ occupancy multiple nights per week, overflow demand creates immediate co-location opportunities.

  • Federal HOS rules mandate 10-hour rest breaks, creating predictable parking demand
  • Capacity constraints force truckers to continue driving or park illegally
  • Overflow demand is quantifiable and validates adjacent development
  • Getty IC confidence: saturation = proven demand with minimal underwriting risk
Parking Occupancy Curve

Our Methodology: Sub-Polygon Overnight Dwell Detection

We manually labeled 1,800 parking sub-polygons separate from diesel bays and C-store areas. This precision enables:

  • Isolation of overnight dwell (8pm–6am) from daytime refueling visits
  • Hourly parking occupancy curves by day-of-week
  • Peak saturation identification (Wed–Fri most critical)
  • Statistical confidence intervals for Getty underwriting
  • Comparison across competitive facilities within 5-mile radius
  • Seasonal pattern analysis (holiday peaks, harvest surges)
  • Overflow quantification (trucks parking beyond capacity)
  • Co-location opportunity scoring

Parking Fill Curves: From Data to Decision

Hourly Dwell Pattern

Interpreting the Fill Curve

  • 6pm–8pm: Rapid fill as truckers complete HOS hours
  • 8pm–midnight: Peak saturation (90%+ occupancy = overflow)
  • Midnight–4am: Sustained occupancy (true overnight demand)
  • 4am–6am: Early departures for next-day deliveries
Getty Decision Trigger: When 3+ nights per week exceed 90% occupancy, co-location within 5 miles is statistically validated.

How Saturation Informs Site Selection

1

Identify Saturated Facilities

Our cohort monitors 1,800 major truck stops for recurring 90%+ occupancy patterns. These become "anchor" sites proving unmet demand.

2

Map 5-Mile Radius

Overflow truckers typically divert 3–7 miles when primary choice is full. We search for parcels with strong ingress/egress within this radius.

3

Quantify Overflow Demand

We estimate monthly overflow (trucks turned away) and map that to gallons proxy. This becomes the demand baseline for Getty underwriting.

4

Validate with HPMS

Corridor flow must support dual facilities. We cross-check cohort data against HPMS to ensure supply gap is real, not algorithmic noise.

5

Score Real Estate Fundamentals

Candidate parcels must pass Getty's fallback-use test: strong corner, visibility, ingress/egress, and alternative-use flexibility.

6

Deliver Getty-Ready Package

Site brief includes saturation curves, overflow quantification, gallons proxy, and competitive analysis—all transparently auditable.

Sample Visualization: Competitive Saturation Analysis

Competitive Saturation

Interpretation: This sample corridor shows consistent 90%+ occupancy Wed–Fri at the primary facility (blue bars). Secondary facility (gold bars) shows moderate saturation, indicating market can support additional capacity.

Getty IC Insight: The red saturation threshold line indicates when overflow demand becomes statistically significant. Three consecutive nights above this threshold validates co-location opportunity.

How This De-Risks Getty Development

Traditional Underwriting Challenge

  • Parking demand is invisible in HPMS data
  • Site visits capture single snapshots, miss weekly patterns
  • Anecdotal trucker feedback lacks statistical rigor
  • Getty IC must rely on developer intuition vs. data
  • Re-tenant risk if operator changes: unproven location fundamentals

Milepost Saturation Module Solution

  • Continuous monitoring of 1,800 parking sub-polygons
  • Statistical confidence from 180,000-device cohort
  • Hourly + weekly patterns reveal true demand
  • Overflow quantification provides Getty IC with transparent validation
  • Re-tenant advantage: data-proven flows shorten timeframes, ease new operator attraction

The Getty Advantage

Parking saturation is the single strongest leading indicator of immediate truck-stop development opportunity. By combining:

  • Manual parking sub-polygon geofences (1,800 facilities)
  • 180,000-device trucker cohort mobility
  • Overnight dwell detection algorithms
  • HPMS corridor flow validation

Milepost delivers Getty-ready opportunities with the lowest underwriting risk profile in the industry.

See How We Align With Getty's Investment Philosophy

Explore how our data-driven approach matches Getty's risk posture and portfolio strategy.

Getty Alignment